Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 33.907450 36.610755 39.550854 43.008834 46.994690 51.482437 56.971892
2025-05-04 30.220637 33.879660 38.124694 43.496694 50.240270 58.611363 70.111414
2025-05-11 27.641433 31.705369 36.613528 43.128086 51.799186 63.357921 80.759132
2025-05-18 25.618373 29.877756 35.176828 42.470332 52.638310 67.016589 90.482541
2025-05-25 23.939503 28.281092 33.809174 41.642467 52.988480 69.866448 99.505123
2025-06-01 22.570865 26.950164 32.635596 40.894492 53.264255 72.529726 108.808337
2025-06-08 21.277110 25.615665 31.334020 39.805688 52.842312 73.937817 116.157847
2025-06-15 20.897733 25.458429 31.602596 40.972660 55.992930 81.793450 138.898721
2025-06-22 20.147631 24.743482 31.028895 40.810717 56.957253 85.951526 155.454637
2025-06-29 19.318508 23.870214 30.166816 40.120147 56.931347 88.218520 168.469278
2025-07-06 18.436151 22.878725 29.074672 38.979573 55.991802 88.509521 176.427198
2025-07-13 18.262172 22.870659 29.410189 40.119947 59.202405 97.941200 216.799449
2025-07-20 17.993996 22.731194 29.565721 41.025181 62.206574 107.992962 270.392753
2025-07-27 17.625629 22.428745 29.456237 41.480023 64.433947 116.993698 333.006022
2025-08-03 17.099873 21.868693 28.913761 41.138929 65.019423 122.068395 386.168109
2025-08-10 16.552380 21.252505 28.249696 40.530178 64.971738 125.469186 437.433553
2025-08-17 16.007404 20.618708 27.526646 39.763322 64.497470 127.583693 486.430374
2025-08-24 15.513144 20.043017 26.869477 39.069833 64.103505 129.878756 545.155437
2025-08-31 14.980738 19.392288 26.065443 38.059253 62.906480 129.465329 581.153153
2025-09-07 14.912940 19.441973 26.389109 39.142335 66.547438 145.761454 891.023530
2025-09-14 14.601856 19.107062 26.068435 38.992123 67.318950 152.786008 1158.766841
2025-09-21 14.212751 18.639373 25.509587 38.351253 66.842354 155.154033 1376.650270
2025-09-28 13.762503 18.064915 24.754125 37.291620 65.244284 152.845178 1454.313916